Brazil isClearly Fucked.

We are entering a noticeable amount of fucked, while severe outcomes remain unevenly distributed rather than universal.

0.0

Clearly Fucked

Brazil severity index

32% confidence

Drivers

What moved Brazil

macroeconomic

+9.0

Citi sees Brazil inflation above forecast, Mexico CPI surprises lower

Investing.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

about 22 hours ago

current_news

macroeconomic

+8.0

The Iran war: Farmers in Brazil and Argentina face rising fertilizer and energy prices

IFPRI reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

about 1 month ago

current_news

macroeconomic

+4.8

Brazil central bank flags demand-driven inflation as economists scale back rate-cut bets

Reuters reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

7 days ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_newsabout 22 hours agomacroeconomicBR, MX

Citi sees Brazil inflation above forecast, Mexico CPI surprises lower

Investing.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

90.4

Open source
current_newsabout 1 month agomacroeconomicAR, BR, IR

The Iran war: Farmers in Brazil and Argentina face rising fertilizer and energy prices

IFPRI reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

80.0

Open source
current_news7 days agomacroeconomicBR

Brazil central bank flags demand-driven inflation as economists scale back rate-cut bets

Reuters reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

48.0

Open source
current_news14 days agomacroeconomicBR

Brazil Inflation Jumps Through Target Ceiling on Pricier Food

Bloomberg.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

48.0

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

20.3

Active

Thin confidence

Confidence 29%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

72.1

Heavy pressure

High confidence

Confidence 90%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

6.6

Low

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

31.5

Active

Thin confidence

Confidence 29%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Brazil

  • Macroeconomic stress is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Comparison

Brazil versus the global baseline

Brazil

22.2

Clearly Fucked

Global baseline

76.0

Crisis-Level Fucked

Brazil currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 53.8 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

-5.7

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-09 03:35 UTC.

7d

-16.8

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-03 03:34 UTC.

30d

+4.1

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-11 03:34 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 409 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 4 minutes ago

Latency: 524 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

GDELT request failed with 429

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 2 days ago

Latency: 506 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: 2 months ago

Latency: 432 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 1137 ms