Brazil isManageably Fucked.

We are slightly fucked, without enough cross-domain overlap to call this a full mess.

0.0

Manageably Fucked

Brazil severity index

33% confidence

Drivers

What moved Brazil

macroeconomic

+6.8

Brazil sees slightly higher inflation this year after oil shock

Reuters reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

20 days ago

current_news

macroeconomic

+5.8

Brazil Economists Lift Inflation Forecasts Through 2028 as Outlook Dims

Bloomberg.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

3 days ago

current_news

macroeconomic

+4.8

Brazil Inflation Blows Past All Forecasts as Iran War Clouds Outlook

Bloomberg.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

7 days ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news20 days agomacroeconomicBR

Brazil sees slightly higher inflation this year after oil shock

Reuters reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

68.0

Open source
current_news3 days agomacroeconomicBR

Brazil Economists Lift Inflation Forecasts Through 2028 as Outlook Dims

Bloomberg.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

57.8

Open source
current_news7 days agomacroeconomicBR, IR

Brazil Inflation Blows Past All Forecasts as Iran War Clouds Outlook

Bloomberg.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

48.0

Open source
current_news21 days agomacroeconomicBR

Brazil's annual inflation slows ahead of key rate decision

Reuters reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Brazil.

48.0

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Weight 22%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Civil unrest

Weight 14%

23.9

Confidence 39%

Coverage sparse

3 live proxy signals in this window

3 live proxy signals are contributing here while fuller structured coverage is still being built out.

Macroeconomic stress

Weight 14%

56.7

Confidence 90%

Coverage measured

6 evidence items in this window

6 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Public health

Weight 10%

0.0

Confidence 56%

Coverage measured

0 evidence items in this window

Measured sources are live here, but current stress is limited.

Natural disasters

Weight 13%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Climate & environment

Weight 10%

8.1

Confidence 63%

Coverage measured

1 evidence item in this window

1 evidence item is currently lifting this domain.

Cyber & infrastructure

Weight 9%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Governance

Weight 8%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Brazil

  • Macroeconomic stress is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.
Read methodologyBack to global

Comparison

Brazil versus the global baseline

Brazil

17.1

Manageably Fucked

Global baseline

71.4

Crisis-Level Fucked

Brazil currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 54.3 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

7d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

30d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 1 minute ago

Latency: 1295 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 4 minutes ago

Latency: 1504 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: fresh

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 20 days ago

Latency: 2678 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 1 month ago

Latency: 1278 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 1 minute ago

Latency: 2170 ms