Iran isBroadly Fucked.

We are intensely fucked across multiple fronts, and the score is being pushed by breadth as much as raw intensity.

0.0

Broadly Fucked

Iran severity index

37% confidence

Drivers

What moved Iran

conflict security

+6.0

Trump Threatens to Pull U.S. Out of NATO Amid Fallout Over Iran War. Can He Legally Do That?

Time Magazine reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Iran.

about 1 hour ago

current_news

conflict security

+6.0

Europe didn’t want an Iran war, yet Trump is saddling it with the consequences

CNN reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Iran.

about 2 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+5.9

Trump makes case for Iran war. And, SCOTUS leans toward upholding birthright citizenship

NPR reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Iran.

about 4 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_newsabout 1 hour agoconflict securityIR, US

Trump Threatens to Pull U.S. Out of NATO Amid Fallout Over Iran War. Can He Legally Do That?

Time Magazine reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Iran.

59.8

Open source
current_newsabout 2 hours agoconflict securityIR

Europe didn’t want an Iran war, yet Trump is saddling it with the consequences

CNN reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Iran.

59.6

Open source
current_newsabout 4 hours agoconflict securityIR

Trump makes case for Iran war. And, SCOTUS leans toward upholding birthright citizenship

NPR reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Iran.

59.4

Open source
current_newsabout 4 hours agoconflict securityIR, YE

Yemen’s Houthis coordinate with Iran, but retain independence, despite war

Al Jazeera reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Iran.

59.3

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Weight 22%

84.4

Confidence 58%

Coverage sparse

6 live proxy signals in this window

6 recent war-linked signals are recurring often enough to treat this as sustained active-war stress, even before fuller structured conflict coverage lands.

Civil unrest

Weight 14%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Macroeconomic stress

Weight 14%

63.4

Confidence 77%

Coverage measured

3 evidence items in this window

3 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Public health

Weight 10%

0.0

Confidence 56%

Coverage measured

0 evidence items in this window

Measured sources are live here, but current stress is limited.

Natural disasters

Weight 13%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Climate & environment

Weight 10%

37.2

Confidence 63%

Coverage measured

1 evidence item in this window

1 evidence item is currently lifting this domain.

Cyber & infrastructure

Weight 9%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Governance

Weight 8%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Iran

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.
Read methodologyBack to global

Comparison

Iran versus the global baseline

Iran

65.4

Broadly Fucked

Global baseline

71.4

Crisis-Level Fucked

Iran currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 6.0 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

7d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

30d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 6 minutes ago

Latency: 1052 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 10 minutes ago

Latency: 1316 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: fresh

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 20 days ago

Latency: 2491 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 1 month ago

Latency: 1040 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 6 minutes ago

Latency: 1680 ms