Mexico isHeavily Fucked.

The numbers have become difficult to defend, and the latest inputs are reinforcing rather than cancelling one another.

0.0

Heavily Fucked

Mexico severity index

41% confidence

Drivers

What moved Mexico

conflict security

+5.8

At least 120 cartel-orchestrated drone attacks reported in Mexico in 2025

BorderReport reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Mexico.

21 days ago

current_news

conflict security

+5.5

Drones Reportedly Being Used to Help Smugglers Cross the U.S.-Mexico Border

International Business Times reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Mexico.

about 18 hours ago

current_news

civil unrest

+5.2

Demonstration Alert: Planned Protest in Mexico City on March 26

U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Mexico (.gov) reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to Mexico.

7 days ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news21 days agoconflict securityMX

At least 120 cartel-orchestrated drone attacks reported in Mexico in 2025

BorderReport reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Mexico.

58.0

Open source
current_newsabout 18 hours agoconflict securityMX, US

Drones Reportedly Being Used to Help Smugglers Cross the U.S.-Mexico Border

International Business Times reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Mexico.

55.0

Open source
current_news7 days agocivil unrestMX, US

Demonstration Alert: Planned Protest in Mexico City on March 26

U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Mexico (.gov) reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to Mexico.

52.0

Open source
current_news2 days agoconflict securityMX

Mexico in war

cccb.org reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Mexico.

51.5

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Weight 22%

73.4

Confidence 58%

Coverage sparse

5 live proxy signals in this window

3 recent war-linked signals are recurring often enough to treat this as sustained active-war stress, even before fuller structured conflict coverage lands.

Civil unrest

Weight 14%

36.1

Confidence 29%

Coverage sparse

1 live proxy signal in this window

1 live proxy signal is contributing here while fuller structured coverage is still being built out.

Macroeconomic stress

Weight 14%

44.6

Confidence 77%

Coverage measured

3 evidence items in this window

3 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Public health

Weight 10%

0.0

Confidence 56%

Coverage measured

0 evidence items in this window

Measured sources are live here, but current stress is limited.

Natural disasters

Weight 13%

19.1

Confidence 54%

Coverage sparse

6 live proxy signals in this window

6 nearby seismic events are influencing this reading via a focal-city radius sample.

Climate & environment

Weight 10%

6.6

Confidence 63%

Coverage measured

1 evidence item in this window

1 evidence item is currently lifting this domain.

Cyber & infrastructure

Weight 9%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Governance

Weight 8%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Mexico

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 16 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.
Read methodologyBack to global

Comparison

Mexico versus the global baseline

Mexico

50.5

Heavily Fucked

Global baseline

71.4

Crisis-Level Fucked

Mexico currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 20.9 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

7d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

30d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

6 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 14 minutes ago

Latency: 1016 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 18 minutes ago

Latency: 1271 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: fresh

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 20 days ago

Latency: 2486 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 1 month ago

Latency: 1018 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 14 minutes ago

Latency: 2142 ms