Nigeria isA Fair Bit Fucked.

Things are leaning in the wrong direction, without yet tipping into sustained multi-front crisis mode.

0.0

A Fair Bit Fucked

Nigeria severity index

33% confidence

Drivers

What moved Nigeria

macroeconomic

+6.6

Nigeria’s 2026 defence budget: stretched between instability and inflation

The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Nigeria.

9 days ago

current_news

macroeconomic

+6.5

Living costs are pressuring Nigeria

inflation 33.2%, unemployment 3.1%, GDP growth 4.1%, fuel imports 38.0% of merchandise imports

5 months ago

world_bank

civil unrest

+5.0

Nigeria Protest

Dayton Daily News reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to Nigeria.

about 3 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news9 days agomacroeconomicNG

Nigeria’s 2026 defence budget: stretched between instability and inflation

The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Nigeria.

66.0

Open source
world_bank5 months agomacroeconomicNG

Living costs are pressuring Nigeria

inflation 33.2%, unemployment 3.1%, GDP growth 4.1%, fuel imports 38.0% of merchandise imports

65.0

current_newsabout 3 hours agocivil unrestNG

Nigeria Protest

Dayton Daily News reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to Nigeria.

49.6

Open source
current_news15 days agomacroeconomicNG

Nigeria's key rate held as central bank thinks inflation rise is transitory

Reuters reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Nigeria.

48.0

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

40.1

Elevated

Limited confidence

Confidence 34%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

61.6

Heavy pressure

High confidence

Confidence 90%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

36.2

Elevated

Solid confidence

Confidence 70%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

13.7

Low

Thin confidence

Confidence 29%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Nigeria

  • Macroeconomic stress is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Comparison

Nigeria versus the global baseline

Nigeria

26.0

A Fair Bit Fucked

Global baseline

71.2

Crisis-Level Fucked

Nigeria currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 45.2 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

-7.1

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-03 03:34 UTC.

7d

-3.4

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-28 03:36 UTC.

30d

-7.8

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-05 03:34 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 14 minutes ago

Latency: 1741 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 15 minutes ago

Latency: 2136 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 6 days ago

Latency: 8429 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 2 months ago

Latency: 1954 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 14 minutes ago

Latency: 3147 ms