Russia isDeeply Fucked.

This is broad, fast, and getting expensive, with severe signals stacking instead of taking turns.

0.0

Deeply Fucked

Russia severity index

37% confidence

Drivers

What moved Russia

conflict security

+8.3

Baltic states fear Russia-Ukraine war spillover after drone incursions

Al Jazeera reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Russia.

3 days ago

current_news

conflict security

+8.2

Ukraine drone strike kills one, triggers fire at Russian Temryuk port: Moscow

Anadolu Ajansı reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Russia.

about 3 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+7.8

Ukraine and Russia trade overnight drone strikes, officials say

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Russia.

1 day ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news3 days agoconflict securityRU, UA

Baltic states fear Russia-Ukraine war spillover after drone incursions

Al Jazeera reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Russia.

83.3

Open source
current_newsabout 3 hours agoconflict securityRU, UA

Ukraine drone strike kills one, triggers fire at Russian Temryuk port: Moscow

Anadolu Ajansı reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Russia.

81.5

Open source
current_news1 day agoconflict securityRU, UA

Ukraine and Russia trade overnight drone strikes, officials say

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Russia.

77.6

Open source
current_newsabout 18 hours agoconflict securityRU

Putin says Russia developing satellite-based drone control system, Ifax says

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Russia.

55.1

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

90.0

Critical pressure

Solid confidence

Confidence 58%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

16.3

Active

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

6.6

Low

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

35.6

Elevated

Limited confidence

Confidence 39%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Russia

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.

Comparison

Russia versus the global baseline

Russia

60.7

Deeply Fucked

Global baseline

71.5

Crisis-Level Fucked

Russia currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 10.8 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

-7.1

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-12 03:37 UTC.

7d

+0.2

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-06 03:36 UTC.

30d

+0.1

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-14 03:34 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 565 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 11 minutes ago

Latency: 562 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

GDELT request failed with 429

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: about 4 hours ago

Latency: 589 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: 2 months ago

Latency: 349 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 979 ms