Türkiye isDangerously Fucked.

The numbers have become difficult to defend, with enough simultaneous pressure to make the average week look luxurious.

0.0

Dangerously Fucked

Türkiye severity index

39% confidence

Drivers

What moved Türkiye

macroeconomic

+6.5

OECD sees slower growth ahead for Türkiye, inflation easing below 20%

Türkiye Today reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Türkiye.

1 day ago

current_news

conflict security

+5.8

Türkiye calls for restraint after drone attack on Turkish-owned cargo ship in Black Sea

TRT World reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Türkiye.

6 days ago

current_news

macroeconomic

+5.2

Living costs are pressuring Türkiye

inflation 58.5%, unemployment 8.5%, GDP growth 3.3%, fuel imports 8.6% of merchandise imports

5 months ago

world_bank

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news1 day agomacroeconomicTR

OECD sees slower growth ahead for Türkiye, inflation easing below 20%

Türkiye Today reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Türkiye.

64.6

Open source
current_news6 days agoconflict securityTR

Türkiye calls for restraint after drone attack on Turkish-owned cargo ship in Black Sea

TRT World reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Türkiye.

58.0

Open source
world_bank5 months agomacroeconomicTR

Living costs are pressuring Türkiye

inflation 58.5%, unemployment 8.5%, GDP growth 3.3%, fuel imports 8.6% of merchandise imports

51.9

current_newsabout 1 month agoconflict securityTR

Türkiye’s missile odyssey

The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Türkiye.

40.0

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

71.4

Heavy pressure

Solid confidence

Confidence 58%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

20.3

Active

Thin confidence

Confidence 29%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

59.8

Elevated

Solid confidence

Confidence 70%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

14.4

Low

Limited confidence

Confidence 39%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

6.6

Low

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Türkiye

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 12 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.

Comparison

Türkiye versus the global baseline

Türkiye

51.2

Dangerously Fucked

Global baseline

71.2

Crisis-Level Fucked

Türkiye currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 20.0 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

-4.1

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-03 03:34 UTC.

7d

+26.5

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-28 03:36 UTC.

30d

+24.2

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-05 03:34 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

2 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 12 minutes ago

Latency: 1937 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 13 minutes ago

Latency: 2071 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 6 days ago

Latency: 8427 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 2 months ago

Latency: 1797 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 12 minutes ago

Latency: 4267 ms