Ukraine isIntensely Fucked.

Too many serious things are happening at the same time, with enough geographic spread to make this feel less containable.

0.0

Intensely Fucked

Ukraine severity index

39% confidence

Drivers

What moved Ukraine

conflict security

+9.2

Ukraine war: air campaign intensifies as Russia and Ukraine trade massive drone and missile attacks

The Conversation reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 4 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+8.0

Ukraine's drone strikes set a gloomy tone for Putin's economic showcase - ABC News

ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 12 hours ago

current_news

governance

+5.1

House Advances New Sanctions on Russia and Aid to Ukraine

The New York Times reported a recent governance signal connected to Ukraine.

about 17 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_newsabout 4 hours agoconflict securityRU, UA

Ukraine war: air campaign intensifies as Russia and Ukraine trade massive drone and missile attacks

The Conversation reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

92.0

Open source
current_newsabout 12 hours agoconflict securityUA

Ukraine's drone strikes set a gloomy tone for Putin's economic showcase - ABC News

ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

80.0

Open source
current_newsabout 17 hours agogovernanceRU, UA

House Advances New Sanctions on Russia and Aid to Ukraine

The New York Times reported a recent governance signal connected to Ukraine.

51.2

Open source
current_news27 minutes agogovernanceLV, UA

Fear In Latvia As Military Drones Bring Ukraine War To NATO’s Eastern Border

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported a recent governance signal connected to Ukraine.

40.0

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

90.0

Critical pressure

Solid confidence

Confidence 58%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

45.8

Elevated

Solid confidence

Confidence 77%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

6.6

Low

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

44.9

Elevated

Limited confidence

Confidence 44%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Ukraine

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.

Comparison

Ukraine versus the global baseline

Ukraine

67.1

Intensely Fucked

Global baseline

71.2

Crisis-Level Fucked

Ukraine currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 4.1 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

+7.3

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-03 03:34 UTC.

7d

+13.6

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-28 03:36 UTC.

30d

-3.9

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-05 03:34 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 9 minutes ago

Latency: 1924 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 10 minutes ago

Latency: 2060 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 6 days ago

Latency: 8359 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 2 months ago

Latency: 1903 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 9 minutes ago

Latency: 6657 ms