Ukraine isIntensely Fucked.

We are intensely fucked across multiple fronts, and recent acceleration is doing damage on top of an already high baseline.

0.0

Intensely Fucked

Ukraine severity index

39% confidence

Drivers

What moved Ukraine

conflict security

+7.6

Ukraine: Drone attacks on Chornobyl are ‘gambling with the safety of millions of people’

UN News reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

1 day ago

current_news

macroeconomic

+7.4

IEA warns global oil refining system ‘stretched to the limit’ as Iran, Ukraine wars tighten market

CNBC reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Ukraine.

about 12 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+6.1

More than 500,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine, UK defense chief says

AP News reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 9 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news1 day agoconflict securityUA

Ukraine: Drone attacks on Chornobyl are ‘gambling with the safety of millions of people’

UN News reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

75.6

Open source
current_newsabout 12 hours agomacroeconomicIR, UA

IEA warns global oil refining system ‘stretched to the limit’ as Iran, Ukraine wars tighten market

CNBC reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Ukraine.

74.0

Open source
current_newsabout 9 hours agoconflict securityUA, GB

More than 500,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine, UK defense chief says

AP News reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

60.5

Open source
current_newsabout 18 hours agomacroeconomicUA

Ukraine war briefing: Nato ‘foils Russian undersea cable sabotage drill’

The Guardian reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Ukraine.

57.1

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

83.1

Critical pressure

Solid confidence

Confidence 58%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

68.6

Heavy pressure

Solid confidence

Confidence 77%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

1.8

Low

Thin confidence

Confidence 29%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

6.6

Low

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

47.1

Elevated

Limited confidence

Confidence 44%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Ukraine

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 11 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.

Comparison

Ukraine versus the global baseline

Ukraine

66.5

Intensely Fucked

Global baseline

72.1

Crisis-Level Fucked

Ukraine currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 5.6 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

+4.5

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-09-10 03:34 UTC.

7d

-2.2

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-09-04 03:36 UTC.

30d

+0.1

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-08-12 03:34 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 16 minutes ago

Latency: 1194 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 29 minutes ago

Latency: 1420 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 1 day ago

Latency: 5822 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: 2 months ago

Latency: 1384 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 16 minutes ago

Latency: 3623 ms