Ukraine isIntensely Fucked.

Too many serious things are happening at the same time, while confidence is strong where the data is live and candid where it is not.

0.0

Intensely Fucked

Ukraine severity index

36% confidence

Drivers

What moved Ukraine

conflict security

+9.2

Ukraine war briefing: Russia responds to Zelenskyy’s Easter truce offer with drone attack

The Guardian reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 5 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+8.1

Ukraine drone strikes push Russia to boost air defenses

tvpworld.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 8 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+8.0

Exclusive: Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 1 hour ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_newsabout 5 hours agoconflict securityRU, UA

Ukraine war briefing: Russia responds to Zelenskyy’s Easter truce offer with drone attack

The Guardian reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

92.0

Open source
current_newsabout 8 hours agoconflict securityRU, UA

Ukraine drone strikes push Russia to boost air defenses

tvpworld.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

80.6

Open source
current_newsabout 1 hour agoconflict securityUA

Exclusive: Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

79.8

Open source
current_newsabout 6 hours agoconflict securityUA, US

Ukraine’s Way of War is Coming to the Persian Gulf

Washington Monthly reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

59.0

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Weight 22%

90.0

Confidence 58%

Coverage sparse

7 live proxy signals in this window

7 recent war-linked signals are recurring often enough to treat this as sustained active-war stress, even before fuller structured conflict coverage lands.

Civil unrest

Weight 14%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Macroeconomic stress

Weight 14%

20.8

Confidence 63%

Coverage measured

1 evidence item in this window

1 evidence item is currently lifting this domain.

Public health

Weight 10%

0.0

Confidence 56%

Coverage measured

0 evidence items in this window

Measured sources are live here, but current stress is limited.

Natural disasters

Weight 13%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Climate & environment

Weight 10%

7.0

Confidence 63%

Coverage measured

1 evidence item in this window

1 evidence item is currently lifting this domain.

Cyber & infrastructure

Weight 9%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Governance

Weight 8%

34.2

Confidence 29%

Coverage sparse

1 live proxy signal in this window

1 live proxy signal is contributing here while fuller structured coverage is still being built out.

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Ukraine

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.
Read methodologyBack to global

Comparison

Ukraine versus the global baseline

Ukraine

61.4

Intensely Fucked

Global baseline

71.4

Crisis-Level Fucked

Ukraine currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 10.0 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

7d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

30d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 285 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 10 minutes ago

Latency: 431 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: fresh

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 20 days ago

Latency: 135 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 1 month ago

Latency: 168 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 679 ms