Ukraine isIntensely Fucked.

We are intensely fucked across multiple fronts, while the remaining quiet zones are not quiet enough to calm the composite.

0.0

Intensely Fucked

Ukraine severity index

34% confidence

Drivers

What moved Ukraine

conflict security

+9.2

Pentagon says US industry still years from matching Ukraine's wartime drone output

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 13 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+5.7

Pentagon Admits US Drone Production Remains Far Behind Ukraine

Kyiv Post reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 4 hours ago

current_news

conflict security

+5.7

From a Kyiv bomb shelter, Laura Loomer explains her shift on Russia’s war in Ukraine

PBS reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

about 17 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_newsabout 13 hours agoconflict securityUA, US

Pentagon says US industry still years from matching Ukraine's wartime drone output

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

92.0

Open source
current_newsabout 4 hours agoconflict securityUA, US

Pentagon Admits US Drone Production Remains Far Behind Ukraine

Kyiv Post reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

57.3

Open source
current_newsabout 17 hours agoconflict securityRU, UA

From a Kyiv bomb shelter, Laura Loomer explains her shift on Russia’s war in Ukraine

PBS reported a recent conflict security signal connected to Ukraine.

57.2

Open source
current_news1 day agomacroeconomicRU, UA

‘Freeze the conflict’: Drones slow Kazakh oil flow amid Russia-Ukraine war

Al Jazeera reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to Ukraine.

53.2

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

85.5

Critical pressure

Solid confidence

Confidence 58%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

57.9

Elevated

Solid confidence

Confidence 77%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

38.4

Elevated

Limited confidence

Confidence 39%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping Ukraine

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 9 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.

Comparison

Ukraine versus the global baseline

Ukraine

63.2

Intensely Fucked

Global baseline

69.9

Critically Fucked

Ukraine currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 6.7 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

-8.7

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-07-27 03:34 UTC.

7d

-0.2

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-07-21 03:34 UTC.

30d

+1.8

up

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-28 03:36 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 1302 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: stale

offline

Open-Meteo air-quality request failed with 429

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 11 days ago

Latency: 6805 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: 15 days ago

Latency: 1380 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 3541 ms