South Africa isIncreasingly Fucked.

We are entering a noticeable amount of fucked, while severe outcomes remain unevenly distributed rather than universal.

0.0

Increasingly Fucked

South Africa severity index

33% confidence

Drivers

What moved South Africa

conflict security

+5.1

South Africa's fiscal targets on track despite Iran war, Treasury says

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

2 days ago

current_news

civil unrest

+5.0

South Africa's Black-on-Black Violence Targets Immigrants Amid Unrest

조선일보 reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to South Africa.

20 minutes ago

current_news

civil unrest

+4.9

Foreigners flee South Africa after anti-migrant protests

DW reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to South Africa.

about 6 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news2 days agoconflict securityIR, ZA

South Africa's fiscal targets on track despite Iran war, Treasury says

Reuters reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

51.3

Open source
current_news20 minutes agocivil unrestZA

South Africa's Black-on-Black Violence Targets Immigrants Amid Unrest

조선일보 reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to South Africa.

50.0

Open source
current_newsabout 6 hours agocivil unrestZA

Foreigners flee South Africa after anti-migrant protests

DW reported a recent civil unrest signal connected to South Africa.

49.0

Open source
world_bank5 months agomacroeconomicZA

Labour-market stress is elevated in South Africa

inflation 4.4%, unemployment 32.4%, GDP growth 0.5%, fuel imports 19.4% of merchandise imports

41.0

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Share of overall score 22%

41.7

Elevated

Limited confidence

Confidence 39%

Civil unrest

Share of overall score 14%

41.2

Elevated

Limited confidence

Confidence 34%

Macroeconomic stress

Share of overall score 14%

37.1

Elevated

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Public health

Share of overall score 10%

0.0

Quiet

Solid confidence

Confidence 56%

Natural disasters

Share of overall score 13%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Climate & environment

Share of overall score 10%

6.6

Low

Solid confidence

Confidence 63%

Cyber & infrastructure

Share of overall score 9%

0.0

Quiet

Thin confidence

Confidence 24%

Governance

Share of overall score 8%

17.3

Active

Limited confidence

Confidence 39%

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping South Africa

  • Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Comparison

South Africa versus the global baseline

South Africa

21.2

Increasingly Fucked

Global baseline

71.2

Crisis-Level Fucked

South Africa currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 50.0 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

-36.4

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-06-03 03:34 UTC.

7d

-6.1

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-28 03:37 UTC.

30d

-18.7

down

Compared with stored snapshot from 2026-05-05 03:34 UTC.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 5 minutes ago

Latency: 1637 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 5 minutes ago

Latency: 2032 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: live-ish

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 6 days ago

Latency: 8398 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 2 months ago

Latency: 1819 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: 5 minutes ago

Latency: 4409 ms