Updated less than a minute ago

South Africa isBroadly Fucked.

We are intensely fucked across multiple fronts, while the remaining quiet zones are not quiet enough to calm the composite.

0.0

Broadly Fucked

South Africa severity index

38% confidence

Drivers

What moved South Africa

conflict security

+6.0

South Africa Sees Maritime Traffic Surge Amid Iran War

nytimes.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

13 minutes ago

current_news

conflict security

+6.0

South Africa Cuts Fuel Levy to Curb Iran War Impact

wionews.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

about 1 hour ago

current_news

conflict security

+6.0

South Africa: Good Friday in a Time of War

allafrica.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

about 3 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

current_news13 minutes agoconflict securityIR, ZA

South Africa Sees Maritime Traffic Surge Amid Iran War

nytimes.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

60.0

Open source

current_newsabout 1 hour agoconflict securityIR, ZA

South Africa Cuts Fuel Levy to Curb Iran War Impact

wionews.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

59.9

Open source

current_newsabout 3 hours agoconflict securityZA

South Africa: Good Friday in a Time of War

allafrica.com reported a recent conflict security signal connected to South Africa.

59.6

Open source

current_news1 day agomacroeconomicZA

War-fueled energy costs put South Africa harvests in jeopardy

Yahoo Finance reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to South Africa.

55.5

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Weight 22%

81.8

Confidence 58%

Coverage sparse

5 live proxy signals in this window

5 recent war-linked signals are recurring often enough to treat this as sustained active-war stress, even before fuller structured conflict coverage lands.

Civil unrest

Weight 14%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Macroeconomic stress

Weight 14%

59.2

Confidence 77%

Coverage measured

3 evidence items in this window

3 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Public health

Weight 10%

50.8

Confidence 63%

Coverage measured

1 evidence item in this window

1 evidence item is currently lifting this domain.

Natural disasters

Weight 13%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Climate & environment

Weight 10%

7.1

Confidence 63%

Coverage measured

1 evidence item in this window

1 evidence item is currently lifting this domain.

Cyber & infrastructure

Weight 9%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Governance

Weight 8%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Sparse data

Country coverage is thinner than the global read because some lanes still rely on proxy matching or focal-city sampling instead of fully local structured feeds.

Context

What is shaping South Africa

Conflict & security is currently the hottest live lane.
10 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
Sustained active-war reporting is materially lifting the country score rather than being treated as a one-off headline spike.

Read methodology Back to global

Comparison

South Africa versus the global baseline

South Africa

68.0

Broadly Fucked

Global baseline

71.4

Crisis-Level Fucked

South Africa currently reads cooler than the global baseline by 3.4 points.

Trend

Score drift

24h

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

30d

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

0 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 116 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

1 monitoring point sampled successfully.

Last success: 3 minutes ago

Latency: 421 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: fresh

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 20 days ago

Latency: 85 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

1 country macro snapshot cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 1 month ago

Latency: 168 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

8 classified headline signals captured across 1 successful country.

Last success: less than a minute ago

Latency: 504 ms