Conflict & security
22%
Methodology
How the score works
The score is a weighted composite risk index from 0 to 100. In this build it blends structured disaster and climate signals with lower-confidence current-news signals for conflict, unrest, governance, macro stress, public health, and cyber disruption.
Structured providers remain the gold standard. Headline-derived domains stay visibly sparse in the UI so the site does not pretend a story-cluster heuristic is equal to a clean event dataset.
Verdict copy comes from a fixed reviewed library rather than being improvised at runtime, so the editorial layer rotates without drifting into nonsense.
Weights
Domain weights
Civil unrest
14%
Macroeconomic stress
14%
Public health
10%
Natural disasters
13%
Climate & environment
10%
Cyber & infrastructure
9%
Governance
8%
Bands
Band map
Band 0
Not Fucked
0-9
Alt labels: Not Fucked, Hardly Fucked, Barely Fucked, Almost Not Fucked, Only Lightly Fucked
Band 1
Slightly Fucked
10-19
Alt labels: Slightly Fucked, A Little Fucked, Lightly Fucked, Mildly Fucked, A Bit Fucked
Band 2
Moderately Fucked
20-29
Alt labels: Moderately Fucked, Noticeably Fucked, Worryingly Fucked, Meaningfully Fucked, Properly Fucked
Band 3
Pretty Fucked
30-39
Alt labels: Pretty Fucked, Quite Fucked, Fairly Fucked, Substantially Fucked, Uncomfortably Fucked
Band 4
Seriously Fucked
40-49
Alt labels: Seriously Fucked, Deeply Fucked, Really Fucked, Decidedly Fucked, Considerably Fucked
Band 5
Severely Fucked
50-59
Alt labels: Severely Fucked, Very Seriously Fucked, Profoundly Fucked, Gravely Fucked, Acutely Fucked
Band 6
Intensely Fucked
60-69
Alt labels: Intensely Fucked, Critically Fucked, Brutally Fucked, Wildly Fucked, Multi-Front Fucked
Band 7
Extremely Fucked
70-79
Alt labels: Extremely Fucked, Crisis-Level Fucked, Wide-Area Fucked, Systemically Fucked, Massively Fucked
Band 8
Catastrophically Fucked
80-89
Alt labels: Catastrophically Fucked, Historically Fucked, Systemically Fucked, Mega-Fucked, Ruinously Fucked
Band 9
Completely Fucked
90-100
Alt labels: Completely Fucked, Apocalyptically Fucked, Utterly Fucked, Terminally Fucked, Maximally Fucked
Editorial
Methodology blurbs and verdicts
The build includes 300 stored verdict messages and 20 methodology blurbs. Messages are selected by band, scope, confidence, and a deterministic salt so the site rotates copy without inventing new text at runtime.
- Driven mainly by conflict intensity, disaster events, and elevated economic stress.
- Held down by lower cross-domain severity despite heavy news flow.
- Rising on faster event acceleration across multiple regions.
- Confidence reduced due to sparse or delayed local data.
- Weighted toward structured event feeds over raw headline volume.
- Recent disaster activity is doing more work than sentiment alone.
- Coverage is broad enough to be useful, not broad enough to be smug.
- The score reflects severity, spread, and persistence rather than vibes alone.
- This reading is cautious because several domains remain under-covered in phase one.
- Short-term spikes matter, but repeat events matter more.
- Fresh data is doing the lifting here; older structural baselines are not fully wired yet.
- Cross-domain overlap is adding pressure even where single-domain scores look moderate.
- Weak or patchy source coverage is explicitly lowering confidence instead of being ignored.
- Global conditions are being measured more confidently than local edge cases right now.
- Air quality and geophysical stress are currently better observed than governance shocks.
- The methodology rewards corroborated severity and punishes thin evidence.
- This score should be read as a transparent risk pulse, not a mystical truth machine.
- A calmer score still carries caveats when the source mix is narrow.
- More providers will widen the lens; for now the system is honest about what it can see.
- Phase one prioritizes auditable evidence over false completeness.